Texas Solar Set to Surpass Coal Power for the First Time

Texas Solar Power Generation Set to Overtake Coal Generation for the First Time in 2026

Utility-scale solar power is expected to generate more electricity than coal in Texas’ ERCOT grid for the first time in 2026. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts solar generation will reach 78 billion kilowatt-hours (BkWh), while coal will produce about 60 BkWh. It marks a major milestone for the nation’s largest electricity market.

Solar has expanded rapidly across Texas in recent years. Its share of ERCOT’s electricity mix increased from 4% in 2021 to 12% in 2025. During the same period, coal’s share fell from 19% to 13%. Natural gas remains the state’s largest electricity source, supplying an average of 44% of generation.

Texas is expected to account for nearly 40% of all new U.S. utility-scale solar capacity added in 2026. Developers plan to install about 14 GW of new solar projects across the state. The 837 MW Tehuacana Creek 1 Solar and Battery Energy Storage System is expected to be the largest solar project entering service this year.

Solar has already begun outperforming coal during much of the year. It first generated more electricity than coal on a monthly basis in March 2025. The EIA expects solar to exceed coal generation from March through November in 2026. By 2027, solar is forecast to lead in every month except January and December.

Battery storage is also growing quickly in Texas. Developers plan to add nearly 13 GW of new utility-scale battery capacity in 2026. These batteries will store excess solar power during the day and supply electricity after sunset. They will improve grid reliability as renewable generation continues to increase.

Electricity demand in ERCOT continues to rise. Growth is being driven by AI data centers, cryptocurrency mining, industrial expansion, population growth, and oil and gas operations. The rapid buildout of solar and battery storage is helping meet this demand without relying entirely on new fossil fuel generation.

Looking ahead, the EIA forecasts ERCOT solar generation will increase to 99 BkWh in 2027, while coal generation reaches 66 BkWh. With no new coal plants planned and more renewable projects under construction, Texas is expected to continue reshaping its electricity mix over the coming years.

Sources:

• U.S. Energy Information Administration
• Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) – 2026